Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,113$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(609 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,997.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 55.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10,997.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $592$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(117 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{528.1}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 26.4)}}\) (asimptote \(528.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,095$ on 2020-05-23

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,025$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(51.2 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,479.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 120.0)}}\) (asimptote \(46,479.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $63$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(7.76 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{207.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 83.0)}}\) (asimptote \(207.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,650$ on 2020-05-23

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,270$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(143 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,887.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 41.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,887.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(0.465 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,196$ on 2020-05-23

Mauritius⮸

Population $1,271,768$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $332$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(151 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{333.5}{1 + 10^{-0.103 (t - 15.2)}}\) (asimptote \(333.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(4.98 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.8}{1 + 10^{-0.082 (t - 11.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $0$ on 2020-05-23

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $960$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(15.1 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,602.8}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 74.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,602.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(0.872 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20.9}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 31.8)}}\) (asimptote \(20.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $784$ on 2020-05-23

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,513$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(489 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,099.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 76.1)}}\) (asimptote \(38,099.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $735$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(73.4 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{838.0}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 42.4)}}\) (asimptote \(838.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,150$ on 2020-05-23

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $21,343$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(418 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $407$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(19.5 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,090.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 80.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,090.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,832$ on 2020-05-23

Cameroon⮸

Population $26,545,863$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,400$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(292 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,871.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 72.6)}}\) (asimptote \(10,871.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $159$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(12.4 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{193.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.8)}}\) (asimptote \(193.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,419$ on 2020-05-23

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Tunisia recovered 89%
Niger recovered 79%
Morocco recovered 23%

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,048$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(302 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,029.1}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 24.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,029.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $48$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(16.4 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44.6}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 17.2)}}\) (asimptote \(44.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $86$ on 2020-05-23

Niger⮸

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $943$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(327 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{847.2}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 13.6)}}\) (asimptote \(847.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(9.09 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{74.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(74.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-05-23

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,406$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(754 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,892.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,892.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $198$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(59.5 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{188.7}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 19.8)}}\) (asimptote \(188.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,570$ on 2020-05-23